The number of domestic economic experts believe that this year's economic situation is more optimistic, this year the domestic economic growth can be achieved before the high Ping ", the overall increase of more than 9%, but not more than 10% years; not hyperinflation, but the annual CPI index will remain at 3% to 4%.
Zhang Shiyuan, chief analyst of Southwest Securities Research Center, told the first financial business that GDP growth will remain at around 9% in the three quarter and the fourth quarter. The overall growth of the whole year should be over 9%, but it will not exceed 10%.
The NPC Financial and Economic Committee Chen Jiagui also held "2010 days before the second half of the economic situation analysis and forecast" forum pointed out that the second half of the economic situation is not complicated, if you want to use one word to sum up, that is "the year of transition". He said, "GDP's growth of 9% to 10% this year is acceptable and is very likely. However, more than 10% of GDP should be avoided as far as possible in order to prevent the emergence of a big rise and fall.
Chen Jiagui pointed out that the GDP growth reached 11.9% in the first quarter, and the GDP growth in the two quarter is expected to be reduced to about 11%. But the growth of the three and four seasons GDP will slow down, and it is expected that the annual GDP will remain between 9% and 10%.
In his view, the government's macroeconomic policy adjustment is moderate, although the emphasis on the need to maintain continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, but the focus of macroeconomic policy has been from the growth to stable growth, so the government will not introduce policies and measures to stimulate growth, but also on some measures in the original the appropriate adjustment.
On the other hand, under the background of CPI's "3 guarantees" in many parts of the country, many experts believe that there will be no hyperinflation in the year, but CPI will remain between 3% and 4% in the whole year. The annual CPI over 3% may be very large, but it will not exceed a lot.
Chen Jiagui pointed out that even if the CPI index rose by about 4% this year, it still belongs to moderate growth.
Zhang Shiyuan believes that more than 3% or 3.5% of CPI are possible this year, but it should not exceed 4%. The price of agricultural products which is relatively large in season will increase considerably this year. However, because the total quantity of agricultural products is still in excess, the price will not rise sharply due to strong demand, so the latter will not increase much.
Many institutional analysts pointed out that although commodity prices will fluctuate in a certain space this year, the overall fluctuation will not be large. In addition, commodity prices will fluctuate in a certain space this year, and the overall fluctuation will not be large.